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SPELLING OUT THE FUTURE
Paul Lewis
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In an exclusive interview; new Pensions Minister, Steve Webb tells Paul
Lewis that the basic state pension could rise by less than the rate of
inflation in 2012; women born from 1953 might have to wait longer to get
their pensions; and however high the pension age rises, people in work
would still pay National Insurance |
Sitting in his modern office near Westminster
Abbey, Steve Webb told me just how much he liked being Minister
for Pensions. "I've used the phrase 'dream job'. It really is. I
love learning things," and he could not help sharing his latest
amazing fact with me.
"We are still paying 30 Category C pensions in respect of people who
reached pension age before 1948." |
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I was a bit puzzled. To reach pension age before July 1948 a man would
be aged 127 now and a woman 122. While I mulled that over I asked Webb
what had driven him into politics. He already had a good career as a
researcher and academic, first with the Institute for Fiscal Studies
(IFS) and later as Professor of Social Policy at Bath University. But in
1997 he overturned a Conservative majority of 11,000 in Northavon near
Bristol to become a Liberal Democrat MP.
"I have always had a concern about social justice and a lot of my
research was done in the Eighties when inequality was growing. Poor
households used to get grants for essentials - a cooker or a bed. Then
the government decided they would have to borrow the money and pay it
back ... This was the time of the Lawson boom, taxes were being cut in
the top and middle and we were saying to poor people, you've got to
pay back for essential items out of your meagre benefit. This for me
symbolised an unfair society."
But if he wanted to make the system fairer, why become a LibDem? Until
this year the prospect of LibDems in Government was, to say the least,
highly unlikely. "At the IFS you come into contact with all parties.
Some of the people I met were researchers - Ed Davey, David Laws, people
like hat, and senior MPs like Alan Beith. People who had joined the
LibDems because of what they believed in. That's partly what drew me
there."
One thing that Steve Webb and the LibDems believe in is the state
pension. And the Coalition Government introduced the "triple lock" to
raise it each year in line with prices, earnings or 2.5%, whichever is
the highest. but from 2012 the measure of price rises is to be the
Consumer Prices Index, not the Retail Prices Index which has been used
since the Eighties (and will be in 2011) for the annual pension rise.
The CPI leaves out most housing costs and does the arithmetic
differently. As a result it usually shows a rate of inflation about 1%
lower than the more traditional RPI. And that means if the CPI is higher
than earnings, that is the index which ill be used. In 2012 the triple
lock will mean pensions rise by the highest of 2.5%, CPI (expected to be
2.6%) and earnings (forecast to be rising at 1.9%). The highest of these
is CPI, so if these forecasts are right the basic State pension will
rise by 2.6% in April 2012. But that is far lower than the forecast
level of the RPI - 3.4%. Would Webb confirm that the basic state pension
could rise by nearly £1 a week less in 2012 than if it simply followed
the RPI?
He made this remarkable admission: "Depending on what CPI and
earnings are ... it could do." So the famous triple lock would actually
result in a lower pension rise in 2012 than if it had remained pegged to
the RP!. But he claimed that if the pension did rise by less than the RPI, that was more than Labour would have done. "The previous government
had linked the basic pension to the average earnings index, not the
higher of earnings or prices and so its rise was less than 2.5% in the
spending plans."
And did he really believe that labour would have done that? "If they
weren't going to do that, where was the money? Why didn't they put the
money into the spending plans? There are all these promises and hints
but the money isn't there." labour had never suggested that linking the
basic state pension to earnings would result in a lower rise than if it
remained pegged to price rises. So I put this charge to liam Byrne MP
(labour's Chief Secretary to the Treasury who in April left the famous
note to his successor, "I'm afraid there is no money"). He agreed that
the last government's figures did show the cost of raising the state
pension in line with earnings, not prices. But he added, "The reality is
we could have taken a call on what was higher - RPI, 2.5%, or earnings."
When I asked if there was any written proof of that, he admitted there
was not.
STATE PENSION AGE
Another controversial policy of the Coalition is to raise the state
pension age to 66 earlier than the current target of 2024/2026. Steve
Webb revealed that may mean accelerating the rate at which women's
pension age rises. The Coalition has said state pension age would rise
to 66 "no sooner" than "2016 for men and "no sooner" than 2020 for
women. But women's pension age is already rising to equalise it with the
age for men and it will hit 65 in April 2020. So was Webb's intention to
speed up that process for women?
"That's one of the options. Yes. Has to be one of the options." Could it
reach 66 in 2016 or 2018 for men and women, even though under current
plans women's pension age will not have reached 65? "Nothing before 2016
and women won't hit 66 until 2020, that's the guarantee we've given." I
asked if that could mean that the age for both men and women could reach
66 in 2020?
"That's an option," he replied. If so, most women born in 1953 who
expect to reach pension age in 2016 while they are 63 could find the
finishing line moved further away even as they approach it. But men and
women would be treated equally - something European law insists on.
Steve Webb has written to the Equality and Human Rights Commission for
advice on that point. Raising state pension age means people will be
paying National Insurance contributions for longer, even though they may
have paid enough for a full pension 20 years before pension age. "The
logical thing would be people of working age paying NI. That would be my
assumption," said Webb.
BETTER DEAL FOR WOMEN?
In opposition Steve Webb was behind campaigns to get women better state
pensions. Many Saga readers have benefited from his work, encouraged by
this column, to persuade women to pay extra contributions in order to
get a bigger pension. In the past, LibDems had hoped to raise the state
pension to more than £130 a week, especially for older pensioners, most
of whom are women.
Webb had intervened to ensure a review of workplace pensions
specifically looked at "What does this do for women ... a little nudge
to say women are always the poor relations on pensions, let's take a
particular focus to try and readdress that ... and bring that
perspective to every judgement I have to make." And he wants to go
further. "In the longer term we're going to be looking at the whole
state pension system - basic [state] provision, second tier [workplace]
provision, relationship with means-tested benefits. Which is a big, big
piece of reform we've got to look at."
Big - and potentially very expensive. Despite his commitment to it,
would it need Treasury approval before anything could change?
"Everything is something we have to get through the Treasury," Webb
replied with a wry smile. It reminded me of an answer from one of his
Labour predecessors when I asked in 2005 why he had failed to introduce
a change I knew he believed in? "Paul," he replied, "what can I do? I'm
only the Minister."
Like hundreds of other LibDem candidates at the last election, Webb had
campaigned against the "Tory Tax Bombshell" of raising VAT to 20% -
which his party correctly predicted. So how did he feel as a LibDem
voting for that specific Conservative policy after the recent Budget?
"You don't pick and choose individual elements. For me having a Budget
that raised the tax threshold and redistributed some tax changes -
compared to the [Tory] Budget that might have been - I actually felt we
had made a difference."
Making a difference is what all politicians say they want. So what could
a Pensions Minister really do, with the Treasury breathing down his neck
and "no money" left?
His 11 Labour predecessors lasted on average 14 months in the job. But
the Coalition intends to be in power for five years and David Cameron
has said that he prefers continuity to change in ministerial jobs. So
Steve Webb could be with us for a long time. What did he hope to
achieve?
"For me the prize is the state pension scheme. A foundation for people,
simple, decent and on which they can then build private savings. So, if
we can get state pension reform and get this long- term stuff right so
that people are building on that and making themselves better off, that
will be quite a big transformation."
And those 127-year-old men getting Category C pensions I mentioned at
the start? Of course, they do not exist. But 30 of their widows are
still getting a Category C pension of £58.50 a week. All are over 80,
and 20 are over 90. And from 2012 their pension will also be raised by
the triple lock - not by RPI - costing them 45P a week.
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